Market Design in Regulated Health Insurance Markets: Risk Adjustment vs. Subsidies
(with Amy Finkelstein and Pietro Tebaldi)
[current draft: February 2019]
Research
Work in Progress
Submitted Papers
Can Health Insurance Competition Work? Evidence from Medicare Advantage
(with Vilsa Curto, Jonathan Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya)
revised and resubmitted (second round), Journal of Political Economy, NBER Working Paper No. 20818 [current draft: November 2019]
Online Appendix
Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms
(with Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail Ostriker, and Heidi Williams)
NBER Working Paper No. 26162 [current draft: July 2019]
Long Term Care Hospitals: A Case Study in Waste
(with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney)
NBER Working Paper No. 24946 [current draft: April 2019]
covered by the New York Times (August 27, 2018), Modern Healthcare (August 27, 2018), Forbes (August 29, 2018), Skilled Nursing News (September 3, 2018), and Home Health Care News (September 11, 2018)
Assessing The Gains from E-Commerce
(with Paul Dolfen, Pete Klenow, Ben Klopack, Jonathan Levin, Larry Levin, and Wayne Best)
NBER Working Paper No. 25610 [current draft: February 2019]
Online Appendix
covered by The Washington Post (March 15, 2019) and Quartz (October 30, 2019)
Published and Forthcoming Papers
Prediction Accuracy With Electronic Medical Records Versus Administrative Claims
(with Dan Zeltzer, Ran Balicer, Tzvi Shir, Natalie Flaks-Manov, and Efrat Shadmi)
Medical Care, 57(7), July 2019, 551-559
Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare
(with Vilsa Curto, Amy Finkelstein, Jonathan Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(2), April 2019, 302-332
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
covered by the New York Times (August 7, 2017)
The Impact of Financial Incentives on Health and Healthcare: Evidence from a Large Wellness Program
(with Stephanie Lee and Jonathan Levin)
Health Economics, 28(2), February 2019, 261-279
Provider Incentives and Healthcare Costs: Evidence from Long-Term Care Hospitals
(with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney)
Econometrica, 86(6), November 2018, 2161-2219
Estimation Code
Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of European Economic Association, 16(4), August 2018, 957-982
This is a write-up of Amy's Marshall Lecture at the 2017 EEA Meeting
Private Provision of Social Insurance: Drug-Specific Price Elasticities and Cost Sharing in Medicare Part D
(with Amy Finkelstein and Maria Polyakova)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(3), August 2018, 122-153
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs, Downloadable drug-level elasticity estimates, Downloadable class-level elasticity estimates
Consumer Price Search and Platform Design in Internet Commerce
(with Michael Dinerstein, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review, 108(7), July 2018, 1820-1859
Online Appendix and Data and Programs (data set is available with AER subscription only)
Predictive Modeling of U.S. Health Care Spending in Late Life
(with Amy Finkelstein, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer)
Science, 360, June 2018, 1462-1465
Supplementary Material and Programs
Covered in STAT News (June 28, 2018), WBUR (June 28, 2018), Bloomberg (July 18, 2018), and Forbes (October 11, 2018)
Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets
(with Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
Journal of Political Economy, 126(1), February 2018, 178-215
Appendix A-D, Appendix E (seller survey), and Data and Programs
Covered in Bloomberg Businessweek (May 26, 2013) and The Economist (August 29, 2015)
Is American Pet Health Care (Also) Uniquely Inefficient?
(with Amy Finkelstein and Atul Gupta)
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 107(5), May 2017, 491-495
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Covered in Slate (September 27, 2016), The Atlantic (October 7, 2016), The New York Times (January 9, 2017), Harvard Business Review (January 10, 2017), and The Economist (January 12, 2017)
Outpatient Wait Times and Quality of Care for Medicaid Patients
(with Tamar Oostrom and Amy Finkelstein)
Health Affairs, 36(5), May 2017, 826-832
Online Appendix
Covered in MIT News (May 1, 2017)
Developments in Data for Economic Research
(with many authors)
in Economics without Borders: Economic Policy for European Policy Challenges, Richard Blundell et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, March 2017, Chapter 13.6, 596-603
Bunching at The Kink: Implications for Spending Responses to Health Insurance Contracts
(with Amy Finkelstein and Paul Schrimpf)
Journal of Public Economics, 146, February 2017, 27-40
Peer-to-Peer Markets
(with Chiara Farronato and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics, 8, September 2016, 615-635
Mentioned in Financial Times (September 25, 2015)
Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores
(with Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender, and Paul Schrimpf)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(2), April 2016, 195-224
Estimation Code
Paying on the Margin for Medical Care: Evidence from Breast Cancer Treatments
(with Amy Finkelstein and Heidi Williams)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8(1), February 2016, 52-79
Online Appendix and Estimation Code
Managed Competition in Health Insurance
(with Jonathan Levin)
Journal of European Economic Association, 13(6), December 2015, 998-1021
This is a write-up of my Marshall Lecture at the 2014 EEA Meeting
Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: Do Dynamic Incentives Matter?
(with Aviva Aron-Dine, Amy Finkelstein, and Mark Cullen)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(4), October 2015, 725-741
Previously circulated as "Moral hazard in health insurance: How important is forward looking behavior?"
Online Appendix
The Response of Drug Expenditure to Nonlinear Contract Design: Evidence from Medicare Part D
(with Amy Finkelstein and Paul Schrimpf)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(2), May 2015, 841-899
Online Appendix and Estimation Code
Assessing Sale Strategies in Online Markets using Matched Listings
(with Theresa Kuchler, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 7(2), May 2015, 215-247
Previously circulated as "Learning from Seller Experiments in Online Markets"
Online Appendix A and Online Appendix B
Summarized in Vox (September 18, 2011 )
Economics in The Age of Big Data
(with Jonathan Levin)
Science, 345(6210), November 2014, 715
Covered in Quartz (November 18, 2014)
Growth, Adoption, and Use of Mobile e-Commerce
(with Jonathan Levin, Igor Popov, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 104(5), May 2014, 489-494
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Summarized in LSE USAPP Blog
The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis
(with Jonathan Levin)
Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 14, edited by Josh Lerner and Scott Stern, May 2014, 1-24
Mentioned in The New York Times (September 7, 2013)
Sales Taxes and Internet Commerce
(with Dan Knoepfle, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review, 104(1), January 2014, 1-26 (lead article)
Online Appendix
Summarized in LSE USAPP Blog, mentioned in Wall Street Journal (March 22, 2012) and in PC Magzine (May 7, 2013), featured in The Atlantic (May 3, 2012), and referred to in a related SIEPR Policy Brief (January 2013) that we wrote
A Model of Market Power in Customer Markets
(with Paulo Somaini)
Journal of Industrial Economics, 61(4), December 2013, 938-986
Programs for Numerical Analysis
The Impact of Credit Scoring on Consumer Lending
(with Mark Jenkins and Jonathan Levin)
RAND Journal of Economics, 44(2), Summer 2013, 249-274
The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Three Decades Later
(with Aviva Aron-Dine and Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of Economcis Perspectives, 27(1), Winter 2013, 197-222
Online Appendix and Data and Estimation Programs
Selection on Moral Hazard in Health Insurance
(with Amy Finkelstein, Stephen Ryan, Paul Schrimpf, and Mark Cullen)
American Economic Review, 103(1), February 2013, 178-219
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
How General Are Risk Preferences? Choices under Uncertainty in Different Domains
(with Amy Finkelstein, Iuliana Pascu, and Mark Cullen)
American Economic Review, 102(6), October 2012, 2606-2638
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
On The Optimality of Line Call Challenges in Professional Tennis
(with Ran Abramitzky, Shimon Kolkowitz, and Roy Mill)
International Economic Review, 53(3), August 2012, 939-964
Data and Programs
Contract Pricing in Consumer Credit Markets
(with Mark Jenkins and Jonathan Levin)
Econometrica, 80(4), July 2012, 1387-1432
Online Appendix A, Online Appendix B, and Estimation Programs
Jonathan Levin: 2011 John Bates Clark Medalist
(with Steve Tadelis)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 26(2), Spring 2012, 207-222
Selection in Insurance Markets: Theory and Empirics in Pictures
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 25(1), Winter 2011, 115-138
All Figures in Powerpoint
Beyond Testing: Empirical Models of Insurance Markets
(with Amy Finkelstein and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics, 2, September 2010, 311-336
Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets using Variation in Prices
(with Amy Finkelstein and Mark Cullen)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), August 2010, 877-921 (lead article)
Online Appendix
Is Hanukkah Responsive to Christmas?
(with Ran Abramitzky and Oren Rigbi)
Economic Journal, 120(545), June 2010, 612-630
Featured in Slate Magazine (December 19, 2008), Financial Times (December 17, 2010), The Economist (December 17, 2011), The Washington Post (December 22, 2011), and Jewish Journal (December 8, 2018).
Recording Discrepancies in Nielsen Homescan Data: Are They Present and Do They Matter?
(with Ephraim Leibtag and Aviv Nevo)
Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 8(2), June 2010, 207-239
Data supplement (that can be used to construct distributions of price measurement errors and use them to correct estimates from Homescan data)
USDA-ERS report titled "On the Accuracy of Nielsen Homescan Data" (earlier version with more nitty gritty details)
Previously circulated as "Not-So-Classical Measurement Errors: A Validation Study of Homescan"
Optimal Mandates and The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from The U.K. Annuity Market
(with Amy Finkelstein and Paul Schrimpf)
Econometrica, 78(3), May 2010, 1031-1092
Estimation Programs and a Readme file
Empirical Industrial Organization: A Progress Report
(with Jonathan Levin)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 24(2), Spring 2010, 145-162
Reprinted (in Russian!) in Voprosi Economiki
Not All Rivals Look Alike: Estimating an Equilibrium Model of The Release Date Timing Game
Economic Inquiry, 48(2), April 2010, 369-390
Selected as "Best Economic Inquiry Article of 2010"
Stock Market Response to Changes in Movies' Opening Dates
(with Abraham Ravid)
Journal of Cultural Economics, 33(4), November 2009, 311-319
Mentioned in The New York Times (July 14, 2009)
Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending
(with William Adams and Jonathan Levin)
American Economic Review, 99(1), March 2009, 49-84
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs
Mentioned in The New York Times (January 18, 2009)
Discrete Choice Models of Firms' Strategic Decisions
(with Michaela Draganska, Sanjog Misra, Victor Aguirregabiria, Pat Bajari, Paul Ellickson, Dan Horsky, Sridhar Narayanan, Yesim Orhun, Peter Reiss, Katja Seim, Vishal Singh, Raphael Thomadsen, and Ting Zhu)
Marketing Letters, 19(3-4), December 2008, 399-416
Production Targets
(with Guillermo Caruana)
RAND Journal of Economics, 39(4), Winter 2008, 990-1017
Online Appendix (selected quotes from interviews and press)
A Theory of Endogenous Commitment
(with Guillermo Caruana)
Review of Economic Studies, 75(1), January 2008, 99-116
Online appendix: description of the main algorithm
Additional material: examples, algorithm for generic finite two-player games
Programs: download two-by-two algorithm programs, download programs for generic finite two-player games
Earlier draft: working paper version with more results
Uniform Prices for Differentiated Goods: The Case of the Movie-Theater Industry
(with Barak Orbach)
International Review of Law and Economics, 27(2), June 2007, 129-153
Featured in The Washington Post (November 24, 2006), Arizona Daily Star (January 6, 2007), Fortune (November 25, 2014), and Slate (November 2, 2017), and mentioned in The Wisdom of Crowds (page 101)
Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice
(with Alma Cohen)
American Economic Review, 97(3), June 2007, 745-788
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs and Information about using the data
Winner of an Emerald Management Reviews Citation of Excellence as one of the 50 best articles published in 2007 in management
Seasonality in the U.S. Motion Picture Industry
RAND Journal of Economics, 38(1), Spring 2007, 127-145
Previously circulated as "Gross Seasonality and Underlying Seasonality: Evidence fom the U.S. Motion Picture Industry"
Raw Data, Edited and Supplemented Data
Covered in The New York Times (September 5, 2013), The New York Times Magazine (September 8, 2013), and The New Yorker (February 23, 2015)
Equilibrium Demand Elasticities across Quality Segments
(with Olivier Coibion and Juan Carlos Hallak)
International Journal of Industrial Organization, 25(1), February 2007, 13-30
Multilateral Bargaining with Concession Costs
(with Guillermo Caruana and Daniel Quint)
Journal of Economic Theory, 132(1), January 2007, 147-166
Empirical Models of Imperfect Competition: A Discussion
(with Aviv Nevo)
Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Ninth World Congress, Volume II, edited by Richard Blundell, Whitney K. Newey, and Torsten Persson, Cambridge University Press, November 2006, Chapter 3, 86-96 [link to book]
A Note on The Analogies between Empirical Models of Auctions and of Differentiated Product Markets (A related note with more details - but not very polished - that got some citations)
What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success
(with Leeat Yariv)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(1), Winter 2006, 175-188
Publications Data, Faculty Data, Working Paper version with Probits and a Toy Model
Featured in Forbes (May 22, 2006), The Boston Globe (June 25, 2006), The Chronicle of Higher Education (April 20, 2006), Slate Magazine (January 28, 2011), The Sunday Times (May 20, 2010), The Washington Monthly (April 13, 2006), and The Washington Post (May 4, 2006), and mentioned in SuperFreakonomics (page 59)
Efficient Entry
(with Daniel Quint)
Economics Letters, 88(2), August 2005, 278-283
Informational Asymmetries and Observational Learning in Search
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30(3), June 2005, 241-259
Earlier Version with more results
Determinants of International Tourism: A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis
(with Yair Eilat)
Applied Economics, 36(12), July 2004, 1315-1328
The Effect of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities
(with Alma Cohen)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), August 2003, 828-843
Data Set and Do File
Flawed Rankings: A Comment [on Dusansky-Vernon] (comment)
(with Zvi Griliches)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(4), Fall 1998, 233-235
Unpublished/Incomplete Manuscripts
Endogenous Participation and Local Market Power in Highway Procurement
(with Ignacio Esponda)
[current draft: March 2008]
