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Work in Progress

Submitted Papers

Assessing The Gains from E-Commerce
(with Paul DolfenPete Klenow, Ben KlopackJonathan Levin, Larry Levin, and Wayne Best)
NBER Working Paper No. 25610 [current draft: May 2020]
Online Appendix
covered by The Washington Post (March 15, 2019) and Quartz (
October 30, 2019)

Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms
(with Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail Ostriker, and Heidi Williams)
conditionally accepted, American Economic Review, NBER Working Paper No. 26162 [updated draft (May 2020) available from the authors upon request]

Supply-Side Variation in the Use of Emergency Departments
(with Dan Zeltzer, Avichai Chasid, and Ran Balicer)
revise and resubmit, Journal of Health Economics [current draft: May 2020]

Voluntary Regulation: Evidence from Medicare Payment Reform
(with Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, and Neale Mahoney)
NBER Working Paper No. 27223 [current draft: May 2020]

Why is End-of-Life Spending so High? Evidence from Cancer Patients
(with Dan Zeltzer, Amy Finkelstein, Tzvi Shir, Salomon Stemmer, and Ran Balicer)
revise and resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics [current draft: March 2020]

Long Term Care Hospitals: A Case Study in Waste
(with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney)
NBER Working Paper No. 24946 [current draft: February 2020]

covered by the New York Times (August 27, 2018), Modern Healthcare (August 27, 2018), Forbes (August 29, 2018), Skilled Nursing News (September 3, 2018), and Home Health Care News (September 11, 2018)

Published and Forthcoming Papers

Prediction Accuracy With Electronic Medical Records Versus Administrative Claims
(with Dan Zeltzer, Ran Balicer, Tzvi Shir, Natalie Flaks-Manov, and Efrat Shadmi)
Medical Care, 57(7), July 2019, 551-559

Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare
(with Vilsa CurtoAmy Finkelstein, Jonathan Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(2), April 2019, 302-332
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
covered by the New York Times (August 7, 2017)

Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of European Economic Association, 16(4), August 2018, 957-982
This is a write-up of Amy's Marshall Lecture at the 2017 EEA Meeting

Consumer Price Search and Platform Design in Internet Commerce
(with Michael DinersteinJonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review, 108(7), July 2018, 1820-1859 
Online Appendix and Data and Programs (data set is available with AER subscription only)

Predictive Modeling of U.S. Health Care Spending in Late Life
(with Amy Finkelstein, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer)
Science, 360, June 2018, 1462-1465
Supplementary Material and Programs
Covered in STAT News (June 28, 2018), WBUR (June 28, 2018), Bloomberg (July 18, 2018), and Forbes (October 11, 2018)

Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets
(with Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
Journal of Political Economy, 126(1), February 2018, 178-215 
Appendix A-D, Appendix E (seller survey), and Data and Programs
Covered in Bloomberg Businessweek (May 26, 2013) and The Economist (August 29, 2015)

Outpatient Wait Times and Quality of Care for Medicaid Patients
(with Tamar Oostrom and Amy Finkelstein)
Health Affairs, 36(5), May 2017, 826-832
Online Appendix
Covered in MIT News (May 1, 2017) 

Is American Pet Health Care (Also) Uniquely Inefficient?
(with Amy Finkelstein and Atul Gupta)
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 107(5), May 2017, 491-495
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Covered in Slate (September 27, 2016), The Atlantic (October 7, 2016), The New York Times (January 9, 2017), Harvard Business Review (January 10, 2017), and The Economist (January 12, 2017) 

Developments in Data for Economic Research
(with many authors)
in Economics without Borders: Economic Policy for European Policy Challenges, Richard Blundell et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, March 2017, Chapter 13.6, 596-603

Peer-to-Peer Markets
(with Chiara Farronato and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics, 8, September 2016, 615-635

Mentioned in Financial Times (September 25, 2015)

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores
(with Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender, and Paul Schrimpf)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(2), April 2016, 195-224
Estimation Code

Managed Competition in Health Insurance
(with Jonathan Levin)
Journal of European Economic Association, 13(6), December 2015, 998-1021
This is a write-up of my Marshall Lecture at the 2014 EEA Meeting

Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: Do Dynamic Incentives Matter?
(with Aviva Aron-Dine, Amy Finkelstein, and Mark Cullen)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(4), October 2015, 725-741
Previously circulated as "Moral hazard in health insurance: How important is forward looking behavior?"
Online Appendix

Assessing Sale Strategies in Online Markets using Matched Listings
(with Theresa Kuchler, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 7(2), May 2015, 215-247
Previously circulated as "Learning from Seller Experiments in Online Markets"
Online Appendix A and Online Appendix B
Summarized in Vox (September 18, 2011 )

Economics in The Age of Big Data
(with Jonathan Levin)
Science, 345(6210), November 2014, 715
Covered in Quartz (November 18, 2014)

Growth, Adoption, and Use of Mobile e-Commerce
(with Jonathan Levin, Igor Popov, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 104(5), May 2014, 489-494
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Summarized in LSE USAPP Blog

The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis
(with Jonathan Levin)
Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 14, edited by Josh Lerner and Scott Stern, May 2014, 1-24
Mentioned in The New York Times (September 7, 2013)

Sales Taxes and Internet Commerce
(with Dan Knoepfle, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review, 104(1), January 2014, 1-26 (lead article)
Online Appendix
Summarized in LSE USAPP Blog, mentioned in Wall Street Journal (March 22, 2012) and in PC Magzine (May 7, 2013), featured in The Atlantic (May 3, 2012), and referred to in a related SIEPR Policy Brief (January 2013) that we wrote

A Model of Market Power in Customer Markets
(with Paulo Somaini)
Journal of Industrial Economics, 61(4), December 2013, 938-986
Programs for Numerical Analysis

The Impact of Credit Scoring on Consumer Lending
(with Mark Jenkins and Jonathan Levin)
RAND Journal of Economics, 44(2), Summer 2013, 249-274

The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Three Decades Later
(with Aviva Aron-Dine and Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of Economcis Perspectives, 27(1), Winter 2013, 197-222
Online Appendix and Data and Estimation Programs

Jonathan Levin: 2011 John Bates Clark Medalist
(with Steve Tadelis)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 26(2), Spring 2012, 207-222

Selection in Insurance Markets: Theory and Empirics in Pictures
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 25(1), Winter 2011, 115-138 
All Figures in Powerpoint

Beyond Testing: Empirical Models of Insurance Markets
(with Amy Finkelstein and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics, 2, September 2010, 311-336 

Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets using Variation in Prices
(with Amy Finkelstein and Mark Cullen)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), August 2010, 877-921 (lead article)
Online Appendix

Is Hanukkah Responsive to Christmas?
(with Ran Abramitzky and Oren Rigbi)
Economic Journal, 120(545), June 2010, 612-630
Featured in Slate Magazine (December 19, 2008), Financial Times (December 17, 2010), The Economist (December 17, 2011), The Washington Post (December 22, 2011), and Jewish Journal (December 8, 2018).

Recording Discrepancies in Nielsen Homescan Data: Are They Present and Do They Matter?
(with Ephraim Leibtag and Aviv Nevo)
Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 8(2), June 2010, 207-239
Data supplement (that can be used to construct distributions of price measurement errors and use them to correct estimates from Homescan data)
USDA-ERS report titled "On the Accuracy of Nielsen Homescan Data" (earlier version with more nitty gritty details)
Previously circulated as "Not-So-Classical Measurement Errors: A Validation Study of Homescan"

Empirical Industrial Organization: A Progress Report
(with Jonathan Levin)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 24(2), Spring 2010, 145-162
Reprinted (in Russian!) in Voprosi Economiki

Not All Rivals Look Alike: Estimating an Equilibrium Model of The Release Date Timing Game
 Economic Inquiry, 48(2), April 2010, 369-390
 Selected as "Best Economic Inquiry Article of 2010"

Stock Market Response to Changes in Movies' Opening Dates
(with Abraham Ravid)
Journal of Cultural Economics, 33(4), November 2009, 311-319
Mentioned in The New York Times (July 14, 2009)

Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending
(with William Adams and Jonathan Levin)
American Economic Review, 99(1), March 2009, 49-84
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs
Mentioned in The New York Times (January 18, 2009)

Discrete Choice Models of Firms' Strategic Decisions
(with Michaela Draganska, Sanjog Misra, Victor Aguirregabiria, Pat Bajari, Paul Ellickson, Dan Horsky, Sridhar Narayanan, Yesim Orhun, Peter Reiss, Katja Seim, Vishal Singh, Raphael Thomadsen, and Ting Zhu)
Marketing Letters, 19(3-4), December 2008, 399-416

Production Targets
(with Guillermo Caruana)
RAND Journal of Economics, 39(4), Winter 2008, 990-1017
Online Appendix (selected quotes from interviews and press)

Uniform Prices for Differentiated Goods: The Case of the Movie-Theater Industry
(with Barak Orbach)
International Review of Law and Economics, 27(2), June 2007, 129-153
Featured in The Washington Post (November 24, 2006), Arizona Daily Star (January 6, 2007), Fortune (November 25, 2014), and Slate (November 2, 2017), and mentioned in The Wisdom of Crowds (page 101)

Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice
(with Alma Cohen)
American Economic Review, 97(3), June 2007, 745-788
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs and Information about using the data
Winner of an Emerald Management Reviews Citation of Excellence as one of the 50 best articles published in 2007 in management

Seasonality in the U.S. Motion Picture Industry
RAND Journal of Economics, 38(1), Spring 2007, 127-145
Previously circulated as "Gross Seasonality and Underlying Seasonality: Evidence fom the U.S. Motion Picture Industry"
Raw Data, Edited and Supplemented Data
Covered in The New York Times (September 5, 2013), The New York Times Magazine (September 8, 2013), and The New Yorker (February 23, 2015)

Equilibrium Demand Elasticities across Quality Segments
(with Olivier Coibion and Juan Carlos Hallak)
International Journal of Industrial Organization, 25(1), February 2007, 13-30

Multilateral Bargaining with Concession Costs
(with Guillermo Caruana and Daniel Quint)
Journal of Economic Theory, 132(1), January 2007, 147-166

Empirical Models of Imperfect Competition: A Discussion
(with Aviv Nevo)
Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Ninth World Congress, Volume II, edited by Richard Blundell, Whitney K. Newey, and Torsten Persson, Cambridge University Press, November 2006, Chapter 3, 86-96 [link to book]
A Note on The Analogies between Empirical Models of Auctions and of Differentiated Product Markets (A related note with more details - but not very polished - that got some citations)

What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success
(with Leeat Yariv)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(1), Winter 2006, 175-188
Publications Data, Faculty Data, Working Paper version with Probits and a Toy Model
Featured in Forbes (May 22, 2006), The Boston Globe (June 25, 2006), The Chronicle of Higher Education (April 20, 2006), Slate Magazine (January 28, 2011), The Sunday Times (May 20, 2010), The Washington Monthly (April 13, 2006), and The Washington Post (May 4, 2006), and mentioned in SuperFreakonomics (page 59)

Efficient Entry
(with Daniel Quint)
Economics Letters, 88(2), August 2005, 278-283

The Effect of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities
(with Alma Cohen)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), August 2003, 828-843
Data Set and Do File

Flawed Rankings: A Comment [on Dusansky-Vernon] (comment)
(with Zvi Griliches)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(4), Fall 1998, 233-235

Unpublished/Incomplete Manuscripts